Petroleum, also known as crude oil or simply oil, is a naturally occurring, yellowish-black liquid chemical mixture found in geological formations, consisting mainly of . The term petroleum refers both to naturally occurring unprocessed crude oil, as well as to petroleum products that consist of refining crude oil.
Petroleum is a fossil fuel formed over millions of years from anaerobic decay of from buried prehistoric life , particularly and algae, and 70% of the world's oil deposits were formed during the Mesozoic. Conventional reserves of petroleum are primarily recovered by oil drilling, which is done after a study of the relevant structural geology, analysis of the sedimentary basin, and characterization of the petroleum reservoir. There are also unconventional reserves such as oil sands and oil shale which are recovered by other means such as fracking.
Once extracted, oil is refined and separated, most easily by distillation, into innumerable products for direct use or use in manufacturing. Petroleum products include fuels such as gasoline (petrol), diesel fuel, kerosene and jet fuel; bitumen, paraffin wax and lubricants; used to make plastics; solvents, textiles, refrigerants, paint, synthetic rubber, fertilizers, pesticides, pharmaceuticals, and thousands of other . Petroleum is used in manufacturing a vast variety of materials essential for modern life, and it is estimated that the world consumes about each day. Petroleum production played a key role in industrialization and economic development, especially after the Second Industrial Revolution. Some petroleum-rich countries, known as , gained significant economic and international influence during the latter half of the 20th century due to their control of oil production and trade.
Petroleum is a non-renewable resource, and exploitation can be damaging to both the natural environment, climate system and human health (see Health and environmental impact of the petroleum industry). Extraction, refining and burning of petroleum fuels reverse the carbon sink and release large quantities of back into the Earth's atmosphere, so petroleum is one of the major contributors to anthropogenic climate change. Other negative environmental effects include direct releases, such as , as well as air and water pollution at almost all stages of use. Oil access and pricing have also been a source of civil disorder and geopolitical conflicts, leading to state-sanctioned , diplomatic and trade war, energy policy disputes and other resource conflicts. Production of petroleum is estimated to reach peak oil before 2035 as global economies lower dependencies on petroleum as part of climate change mitigation and a transition toward more renewable energy and electrification.
The origin of the term stems from monasteries in southern Italy where it was in use by the end of the first millennium as an alternative for the older term "naphtha".van Dijk, J.P. (2022); Unravelling the Maze of Scientific Writing Through the Ages: On the Origins of the Terms Hydrocarbon, Petroleum, Natural Gas, and Methane. Amazon Publishers, 166 pp. PaperBack Edition B0BKRZRKHW. After that, the term was used in numerous manuscripts and books, such as in the treatise De Natura Fossilium, published in 1546 by the German mineralogist Georg Bauer, also known as Georgius Agricola. After the advent of the oil industry, during the second half of the 19th century, the term became commonly known for the liquid form of hydrocarbons.
The use of petroleum in ancient China dates back to more than 2000 years ago. The I Ching, one of the earliest Chinese writings, cites that oil in its raw state, without refining, was first discovered, extracted, and used in China in the first century BCE. In addition, the Chinese were the first to record the use of petroleum as fuel as early as the fourth century BCE. By 347 CE, oil was produced from bamboo-drilled wells in China.
In the 7th century petroleum was among the essential ingredients for Greek fire, an incendiary projectile weapon that was used by Byzantine Greeks against Arab ships, which were then attacking Constantinople. Crude oil was also distilled by Persian chemists, with clear descriptions given in Arabic handbooks such as those of Abu Bakr al-Razi (Rhazes). The streets of Baghdad were paved with tar, derived from petroleum that became accessible from natural fields in the region.
In the 9th century were exploited in the area around modern Baku, Azerbaijan. These fields were described by the Persian geographer Abu Bakr al-Razi in the 10th century, and by Marco Polo in the 13th century, who described the output of those wells as hundreds of shiploads. Arab and Persian chemists also distilled crude oil to produce flammable products for military purposes. Through Islamic Spain, distillation became available in Western Europe by the 12th century. It has also been present in Romania since the 13th century, being recorded as păcură.Istoria Romaniei, Vol II, p. 300, 1960
Sophisticated oil pits, deep, were dug by the Seneca people and other Iroquois in Western Pennsylvania as early as 1415–1450. The French General Louis-Joseph de Montcalm encountered Seneca using petroleum for ceremonial fires and as a healing lotion during a visit to Fort Duquesne in 1750.
Early British explorers to Myanmar documented a flourishing oil extraction industry based in Yenangyaung that, in 1795, had hundreds of hand-dug wells under production.
Merkwiller-Pechelbronn is said to be the first European site where petroleum has been explored and used. The still active Erdpechquelle, a spring where petroleum appears mixed with water has been used since 1498, notably for medical purposes.
In 1858, Georg Christian Konrad Hunäus found a significant amount of petroleum while drilling for lignite in Wietze, Germany. Wietze later provided about 80% of German consumption in the Wilhelmine Era. The production stopped in 1963, but Wietze has hosted a Petroleum Museum since 1970.
Oil sands have been mined since the 18th century. In Wietze in lower Saxony, natural asphalt/bitumen has been explored since the 18th century.
Chemist James Young in 1847 noticed a natural petroleum seepage in the coal mine at riddings Alfreton, Derbyshire from which he distilled a light thin oil suitable for use as lamp oil, at the same time obtaining a more viscous oil suitable for lubricating machinery. In 1848, Young set up a small business refining crude oil.
Young eventually succeeded, by distilling cannel coal at low heat, in creating a fluid resembling petroleum, which when treated in the same way as the seep oil gave similar products. Young found that by slow distillation he could obtain several useful liquids from it, one of which he named "paraffine oil" because at low temperatures it congealed into a substance resembling paraffin wax.
The production of these oils and solid paraffin wax from coal formed the subject of his patent dated October 17, 1850. In 1850, Young & Meldrum and Edward William Binney entered into partnership under the title of E.W. Binney & Co. at Bathgate in West Lothian and E. Meldrum & Co. at Glasgow; their works at Bathgate were completed in 1851 and became the first truly commercial oil-works in the world with the first modern oil refinery.
The world's first oil refinery was built in 1856 by Ignacy Łukasiewicz in Austria. His achievements also included the discovery of how to distill kerosene from seep oil, the invention of the modern kerosene lamp (1853), the introduction of the first modern street lamp in Europe (1853), and the construction of the world's first modern oil well (1854). at Bóbrka, near Krosno (still operational as of 2025).
The demand for petroleum as a fuel for lighting in North America and around the world quickly grew.
The first oil well in the Americas was drilled in 1859 by Edwin Drake at what is now called the Drake Well in Cherrytree Township, Pennsylvania. There also was a company associated with it, and it sparked a major oil drilling boom.
The first commercial oil well in Canada became operational in 1858 at Oil Springs, Ontario (then Canada West). Oil Museum of Canada, Black Gold: Canada's Oil Heritage, Oil Springs: Boom & Bust Businessman James Miller Williams dug several wells between 1855 and 1858 before discovering a rich reserve of oil four metres below ground.Turnbull Elford, Jean. "Canada West's Last Frontier". Lambton County Historical Society, 1982, p. 110 Williams extracted 1.5 million litres of crude oil by 1860, refining much of it into kerosene lamp oil. Williams's well became commercially viable a year before Drake's Pennsylvania operation and could be argued to be the first commercial oil well in North America. The discovery at Oil Springs touched off an oil boom which brought hundreds of speculators and workers to the area. Advances in drilling continued into 1862 when local driller Shaw reached a depth of 62 metres using the spring-pole drilling method. On January 16, 1862, after an explosion of natural gas, Canada's first oil gusher came into production, shooting into the air at a recorded rate of per day. By the end of the 19th century the Russian Empire, particularly the Branobel company in Azerbaijan, had taken the lead in production.
Oil exploration in North America during the early 20th century later led to the U.S. becoming the leading producer by mid-century. As petroleum production in the U.S. peaked during the 1960s, the United States was surpassed by Saudi Arabia and the Soviet Union in total output.
In the1973 oil crisis, Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations imposed an oil embargo against the United States, United Kingdom, Japan and other Western nations which supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War of October 1973. The embargo caused an oil crisis. This was followed by the 1979 oil crisis, which was caused by a drop in oil production in the wake of the Iranian Revolution and caused oil prices to more than double.
About 90 percent of vehicular fuel needs are met by oil. Petroleum also makes up 40 percent of total energy consumption in the United States, but is responsible for only one percent of electricity generation. Petroleum's worth as a portable, dense energy source powering the vast majority of vehicles and as the base of many industrial chemicals makes it one of the world's most important commodities.
The top three oil-producing countries as of 2018 are the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. In 2018, due in part to developments in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, the United States became the world's largest producer.
About 80 percent of the world's readily accessible reserves are located in the Middle East, with 62.5 percent coming from the Arab five: Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Qatar, and Kuwait. A large portion of the world's total oil exists as unconventional sources, such as bitumen in Athabasca oil sands and extra heavy oil in the Orinoco Belt. While significant volumes of oil are extracted from oil sands, particularly in Canada, logistical and technical hurdles remain, as oil extraction requires large amounts of heat and water, making its net energy content quite low relative to conventional crude oil. Thus, Canada's oil sands are not expected to provide more than a few million barrels per day in the foreseeable future.
An oil well produces predominantly crude oil. Because the pressure is lower at the surface than underground, some of the gas will come out of solution and be recovered (or burned) as associated gas or solution gas. A gas well produces predominantly natural gas. However, because the underground temperature is higher than at the surface, the gas may contain heavier hydrocarbons such as pentane, hexane, and heptane ("natural-gas condensate", often shortened to condensate.) Condensate resembles gasoline in appearance and is similar in composition to some volatile light crude oils.
The hydrocarbons in crude oil are mostly , and various aromatic hydrocarbons, while the other organic compounds contain nitrogen, oxygen, and sulfur, and traces of metals such as iron, nickel, copper and vanadium. Many oil reservoirs contain live bacteria.
+ Composition by weight |
83 to 85% |
10 to 14% |
0.1 to 2% |
0.05 to 1.5% |
0.05 to 6.0% |
< 0.1% |
Four different types of hydrocarbon appear in crude oil. The relative percentage of each varies from oil to oil, determining the properties of each oil.
+ Composition by weight |
15 to 60% |
30 to 60% |
3 to 30% |
remainder |
The alkanes from pentane (C5H12) to octane (C8H18) are oil refinery into gasoline, the ones from nonane (C9H20) to hexadecane (C16H34) into diesel fuel, kerosene and jet fuel. Alkanes with more than 16 carbon atoms can be refined into fuel oil and lubricating oil. At the heavier end of the range, paraffin wax is an alkane with approximately 25 carbon atoms, while Bitumen has 35 and up, although these are usually cracked in modern refineries into more valuable products. The lightest fraction, the so-called petroleum gases are subjected to diverse processing depending on cost. These gases are either flare stack, sold as liquefied petroleum gas, or used to power the refinery's own burners. During the winter, butane (C4H10), is blended into the gasoline pool at high rates, because its high vapour pressure assists with cold starts.
The aromatic hydrocarbons are unsaturated hydrocarbons that have one or more . They tend to burn with a sooty flame, and many have a sweet aroma. Some are carcinogenic.
These different components are separated by fractional distillation at an oil refinery to produce gasoline, jet fuel, kerosene, and other hydrocarbon fractions.
The components in an oil sample can be determined by gas chromatography and mass spectrometry. Use of ozone depleting substances in laboratories . TemaNord 2003:516. Due to the large number of co-eluted hydrocarbons within oil, many cannot be resolved by traditional gas chromatography. This unresolved complex mixture (UCM) of hydrocarbons is particularly apparent when analysing weathered oils and extracts from tissues of organisms exposed to oil.
Crude oil varies greatly in appearance depending on its composition. It is usually black or dark brown (although it may be yellowish, reddish, or even greenish). In the reservoir it is usually found in association with natural gas, which being lighter forms a "gas cap" over the petroleum, and saline water which, being heavier than most forms of crude oil, generally sinks beneath it. Crude oil may also be found in a semi-solid form mixed with sand and water, as in the Athabasca oil sands in Canada, where it is usually referred to as crude bitumen. In Canada, bitumen is considered a sticky, black, tar-like form of crude oil which is so thick and heavy that it must be heated or diluted before it will flow. Venezuela also has large amounts of oil in the Orinoco oil sands, although the hydrocarbons trapped in them are more fluid than in Canada and are usually called extra heavy oil. These oil sands resources are called unconventional oil to distinguish them from oil which can be extracted using traditional oil well methods. Between them, Canada and Venezuela contain an estimated of bitumen and extra-heavy oil, about twice the volume of the world's reserves of conventional oil.
As further layers settled into the sea or lake bed, intense heat and pressure built up in the lower regions. This process caused the organic matter to change, first into a waxy material known as kerogen, found in various around the world, and then with more heat into liquid and gaseous via a process known as catagenesis. Formation of petroleum occurs from hydrocarbon pyrolysis in a variety of mainly endothermic reactions at high temperatures or pressures, or both. These phases are described in detail below.
Catagenesis was pyrolytic despite the fact that it happened at relatively low temperatures (when compared to commercial pyrolysis plants) of 60 to several hundred °C. Pyrolysis was possible because of the long reaction times involved. Heat for catagenesis came from the decomposition of radioactive materials of the crust, especially 40K, 232Th, 235U and 238U. The heat varied with geothermal gradient and was typically 10–30 °C per km of depth from the Earth's surface. Unusual magma intrusions, however, could have created greater localized heating.
The reactions that produce oil and natural gas are often modeled as first order breakdown reactions, where hydrocarbons are broken down to oil and natural gas by a set of parallel reactions, and oil eventually breaks down to natural gas by another set of reactions. The latter set is regularly used in petrochemical plants and oil refineries.
Petroleum has mostly been recovered by oil drilling (natural petroleum springs are rare). Drilling is carried out after studies of structural geology (at the reservoir scale), sedimentary basin analysis, and reservoir characterisation (mainly in terms of the porosity and permeability of geologic reservoir structures). Wells are drilled into oil reservoirs to extract the crude oil. "Natural lift" production methods that rely on the natural reservoir pressure to force the oil to the surface are usually sufficient for a while after reservoirs are first tapped. In some reservoirs, such as in the Middle East, the natural pressure is sufficient over a long time. The natural pressure in most reservoirs, however, eventually dissipates. Then the oil must be extracted using "artificial lift" means. Over time, these "primary" methods become less effective and "secondary" production methods may be used. A common secondary method is "waterflood" or injection of water into the reservoir to increase pressure and force the oil to the drilled shaft or "wellbore." Eventually "tertiary" or "enhanced" oil recovery methods may be used to increase the oil's flow characteristics by injecting steam, carbon dioxide and other gases or chemicals into the reservoir. In the United States, primary production methods account for less than 40 percent of the oil produced on a daily basis, secondary methods account for about half, and tertiary recovery the remaining 10 percent. Extracting oil (or "bitumen") from oil/tar sand and oil shale deposits requires mining the sand or shale and heating it in a vessel or retort, or using "in-situ" methods of injecting heated liquids into the deposit and then pumping the liquid back out saturated with oil.
On the other hand, oil shales are source rocks that have not been exposed to heat or pressure long enough to convert their trapped hydrocarbons into crude oil. Technically speaking, oil shales are not always shales and do not contain oil, but are fined-grain sedimentary rocks containing an insoluble organic solid called kerogen. The kerogen in the rock can be converted into crude oil using heat and pressure to simulate natural processes. The method has been known for centuries and was patented in 1694 under British Crown Patent No. 330 covering, "A way to extract and make great quantities of pitch, tar, and oil out of a sort of stone." Although oil shales are found in many countries, the United States has the world's largest deposits.
The geographic location is important because it affects transportation costs to the refinery. Light crude oil is more desirable than heavy oil since it produces a higher yield of gasoline, while sweet oil commands a higher price than sour oil because it has fewer environmental problems and requires less refining to meet sulfur standards imposed on fuels in consuming countries. Each crude oil has unique molecular characteristics which are revealed by the use of crude oil assay analysis in petroleum laboratories.
Barrels from an area in which the crude oil's molecular characteristics have been determined and the oil has been classified are used as pricing references throughout the world. Some of the common reference crudes are:
There are declining amounts of these benchmark oils being produced each year, so other oils are more commonly what is actually delivered. While the reference price may be for West Texas Intermediate delivered at Cushing, the actual oil being traded may be a discounted Canadian heavy oil – Western Canadian Select – delivered at Hardisty, Alberta, and for a Brent Blend delivered at Shetland, it may be a discounted Russian Export Blend delivered at the port of Primorsk.
Once extracted, oil is refined and separated, most easily by distillation, into numerous products for direct use or use in manufacturing, such as gasoline (petrol), diesel fuel and kerosene to Bitumen and chemical (ethylene, propylene, butene, acrylic acid, para-xylene) used to make plastics, and pharmaceuticals.
Due to its high energy density, easy transportability and oil reserves, oil has become the world's most important source of energy since the mid-1950s. Petroleum is also the raw material for many chemical products, including , , , , and plastics; the 16 percent not used for energy production is converted into these other materials. Petroleum is found in porous rock formations in the upper strata of some areas of the Earth's crust. There is also petroleum in tar sands. Known oil reserves are typically estimated at 190 km3 (1.2 trillion (short scale) barrels) without oil sands, or 595 km3 (3.74 trillion barrels) with oil sands. Consumption is currently around per day, or 4.9 km3 per year, yielding a remaining oil supply of only about 120 years, if current demand remains static. More recent studies, however, put the number at around 50 years.
Closely related to fuels for combustion engines are , greases, and viscosity stabilizers. All are derived from petroleum.
| valign=top |
This table orders the amount of petroleum consumed in 2011 in thousand barrels (1,000 bbl) per day and in thousand cubic metres (1,000 m3) per day:U.S. Energy Information Administration. Excel file from this web page. Table Posted: March 1, 2010From DSW-Datareport 2008 ("Deutsche Stiftung Weltbevölkerung")
314 | 0.51 |
1345 | 0.41 |
127 | 0.03 |
1198 | 0.26 |
140 | 3.35 |
27 | 3.64 |
193 | 0.99 |
82 | 0.06 |
33 | 1.54 |
48 | 0.02 |
109 | 1.39 |
62 | 0.03 |
74 | 2.54 |
61 | 0.93 |
60 | 0.10 |
1 Peak oil already passed in this state
2 This country is not a major oil producer
10,551,497 |
10,460,710 |
8,875,817 |
4,451,516 |
3,990,956 |
3,980,650 |
3,662,694 |
3,106,077 |
2,923,825 |
2,515,459 |
2,276,967 |
2,186,877 |
1,999,885 |
1,769,615 |
1,647,975 |
1,595,199 |
1,522,902 |
1,348,361 |
1,006,841 |
939,760 |
1 | Saudi Arabia (OPEC)8,336 | 1,325 | 7,322 | 1,164 | 8,651 | 1,376 |
2 | Russia 17,083 | 1,126 | 7,194 | 1,144 | 6,565 | 1,044 |
3 | Iran (OPEC)2,540 | 403 | 2,486 | 395 | 2,519 | 401 |
4 | United Arab Emirates (OPEC)2,524 | 401 | 2,303 | 366 | 2,515 | 400 |
5 | Kuwait (OPEC)2,343 | 373 | 2,124 | 338 | 2,150 | 342 |
6 | Nigeria (OPEC)2,257 | 359 | 1,939 | 308 | 2,146 | 341 |
7 | Iraq (OPEC)1,915 | 304 | 1,764 | 280 | 1,438 | 229 |
8 | Angola (OPEC)1,760 | 280 | 1,878 | 299 | 1,363 | 217 |
9 | Norway 11,752 | 279 | 2,132 | 339 | 2,542 | 404 |
10 | Venezuela (OPEC) 11,715 | 273 | 1,748 | 278 | 2,203 | 350 |
11 | Algeria (OPEC) 11,568 | 249 | 1,767 | 281 | 1,847 | 297 |
12 | Qatar (OPEC)1,468 | 233 | 1,066 | 169 | – | – |
13 | Canada 21,405 | 223 | 1,168 | 187 | 1,071 | 170 |
14 | Kazakhstan1,396 | 222 | 1,299 | 207 | 1,114 | 177 |
15 | Azerbaijan 1836 | 133 | 912 | 145 | 532 | 85 |
16 | Trinidad and Tobago 1177 | 112 | 167 | 160 | 155 | 199 |
1 Peak oil already passed in this state
2 Canadian statistics are complicated by the fact it is both an importer and exporter of crude oil, and refines large amounts of oil for the U.S. market. It is the leading source of U.S. imports of oil and products, averaging in August 2007.
Total world production/consumption (as of 2005) is approximately .
1 | United States 18,728 | 1,388 | 9,631 | 1,531 | 12,220 | 1,943 |
2 | China5,487 | 872 | 4,328 | 688 | 3,438 | 547 |
3 | Japan4,329 | 688 | 4,235 | 673 | 5,097 | 810 |
4 | India2,349 | 373 | 2,233 | 355 | 1,687 | 268 |
5 | Germany2,235 | 355 | 2,323 | 369 | 2,483 | 395 |
6 | South Korea2,170 | 345 | 2,139 | 340 | 2,150 | 342 |
7 | France1,697 | 270 | 1,749 | 278 | 1,893 | 301 |
8 | Spain1,346 | 214 | 1,439 | 229 | 1,555 | 247 |
9 | Italy1,292 | 205 | 1,381 | 220 | 1,558 | 248 |
10 | Singapore1,172 | 186 | 916 | 146 | 787 | 125 |
11 | Republic of China (Taiwan)1,009 | 160 | 944 | 150 | 942 | 150 |
12 | Netherlands948 | 151 | 973 | 155 | 936 | 149 |
13 | Turkey650 | 103 | 650 | 103 | 576 | 92 |
14 | Belgium634 | 101 | 597 | 95 | 546 | 87 |
15 | Thailand592 | 94 | 538 | 86 | 606 | 96 |
1 | Japan5,578,000 | 886,831 |
2 | Germany2,677,000 | 425,609 |
3 | South Korea2,061,000 | 327,673 |
4 | France2,060,000 | 327,514 |
5 | Italy1,874,000 | 297,942 |
6 | Spain1,537,000 | 244,363 |
7 | Netherlands946,700 | 150,513 |
8 | Turkey575,011 | 91,663 |
Ocean acidification is the increase in the acidity of the Earth's oceans caused by the uptake of carbon dioxide () from the atmosphere.The saturation state of calcium carbonate decreases with the uptake of carbon dioxide in the ocean. This increase in acidity inhibits all marine life—having a greater effect on smaller organisms as well as shelled organisms (see scallops).
The quantity of oil spilled during accidents has ranged from a few hundred tons to several hundred thousand tons (e.g., Deepwater Horizon oil spill, SS Atlantic Empress, Amoco Cadiz). Smaller spills have already proven to have a great impact on ecosystems, such as the Exxon Valdez oil spill.
Oil spills at sea are generally much more damaging than those on land, since they can spread for hundreds of nautical miles in a thin oil slick which can cover beaches with a thin coating of oil. This can kill sea birds, mammals, shellfish, and other organisms it coats. Oil spills on land are more readily containable if a makeshift earth dam can be rapidly bulldozed around the spill site before most of the oil escapes, and land animals can avoid the oil more easily.
Control of oil spills is difficult, requires ad hoc methods, and often a large amount of manpower. The dropping of bombs and incendiary devices from aircraft on the wreck produced poor results;Torrey Canyon bombing by the Navy and RAF modern techniques would include pumping the oil from the wreck, like in the Prestige oil spill or the MV Erika oil spill.
Though crude oil is predominantly composed of various hydrocarbons, certain nitrogen heterocyclic compounds, such as pyridine, picoline, and quinoline are reported as contaminants associated with crude oil, as well as facilities processing oil shale or coal, and have also been found at legacy creosote sites. These compounds have a very high water solubility, and thus tend to dissolve and move with water. Certain naturally occurring bacteria, such as Micrococcus, Arthrobacter, and Rhodococcus have been shown to degrade these contaminants.
Because petroleum is a naturally occurring substance, its presence in the environment does not need to be the result of human causes such as accidents and routine activities (seismic exploration, drilling, extraction, refining and combustion). Phenomena such as seeps Natural Oil and Gas Seeps in California and are examples of areas that petroleum affects without man's involvement.
In 2016 Goldman Sachs predicted lower demand for oil due to emerging economies concerns, especially China. The BRICS (Brasil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) countries might also kick in, as China briefly had the largest automobile market in December 2009. In the long term, uncertainties linger; the OPEC believes that the OECD countries will push low consumption policies at some point in the future; when that happens, it will definitely curb oil sales, and both OPEC and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) kept lowering their 2020 consumption estimates during the past five years. A detailed review of International Energy Agency oil projections have revealed that revisions of world oil production, price and investments have been motivated by a combination of demand and supply factors. All together, Non-OPEC conventional projections have been fairly stable the last 15 years, while downward revisions were mainly allocated to OPEC. Upward revisions are primarily a result of US tight oil.
Production will also face an increasingly complex situation; while OPEC countries still have large reserves at low production prices, newly found reservoirs often lead to higher prices; offshore giants such as Tupi, Guara and Tiber oilfield demand high investments and ever-increasing technological abilities. Subsalt reservoirs such as Tupi were unknown in the twentieth century, mainly because the industry was unable to probe them. Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) techniques (example: Daqing Field, China) will continue to play a major role in increasing the world's recoverable oil.
The expected availability of petroleum resources has always been around 35 years or even less since the start of the modern exploration. The oil constant, an insider pun in the German industry, refers to that effect.Samuel Schubert, Peter Slominski UTB, 2010: Die Energiepolitik der EU Johannes Pollak, 235 Seiten, p. 20
A growing number of divestment campaigns from major funds pushed by newer generations who question the sustainability of petroleum may hinder the financing of future oil prospection and production.
It is difficult to predict the oil peak in any given region, due to the lack of knowledge and/or transparency in the accounting of global oil reserves. Based on available production data, proponents have previously predicted the peak for the world to be in the years 1989, 1995, or 1995–2000. Some of these predictions date from before the recession of the early 1980s, and the consequent lowering in global consumption, the effect of which was to delay the date of any peak by several years. Just as the 1971 U.S. peak in oil production was only clearly recognized after the fact, a peak in world production will be difficult to discern until production clearly drops off. Peak Oil Info and Strategies "The only uncertainty about peak oil is the time scale, which is difficult to predict accurately."
In 2020, according to BP's Energy Outlook 2020, peak oil had been reached, due to the changing energy landscape coupled with the economic toll of the COVID-19 pandemic.
While there has been much focus historically on peak oil supply, the focus is increasingly shifting to peak demand as more countries seek to transition to renewable energy. The GeGaLo index of geopolitical gains and losses assesses how the geopolitical position of 156 countries may change if the world fully transitions to renewable energy resources. Former oil exporters are expected to lose power, while the positions of former oil importers and countries rich in renewable energy resources is expected to strengthen.
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